Year End Market Update 2020

When viewing data through yearend 2020 (a composite of single-family homes, attached homes, and single-family homesites), the Teton County Real Estate Market set records in every category. After having a slow start to the sales year due to concerns over the Covid-19 pandemic, fourth quarter sales volume in many instances outpaced that of 2019 in its entirety. The result of this is total residential volume of sales that approached $1.8B (and crested the $2.0B mark when including commercial sales). A flight from more populated areas is widely acknowledged for this growth in volume in Teton County sales, with the higher echelons of the market ($5M and up) showing the largest gains – a likely result of the luxury home demographic being comprised of people having the most flexibility to move from their primary residences . The result of the competition for Teton County real estate is that inventory of available product dwindled to all time lows (overall inventory falling 63% comparing January 2020 to January 2021) with the average price of single-family homes increasing 47% to a tabulated $3.7M. Admittedly, this average is heavily influenced by the prevalence of luxury single-family homes in 2020, and a discussion market trends allocated between vacant land, attached homes and single-family homes is following that addresses these categories in the context of the pricing cohorts of Resort/Luxury Market as compared to what has historically been referred to as the “Local” market. The latter of these categories being properties that historically have been targeted for purchase by market participants whose economic resources were dependent on income earned locally. [Admittedly this premise is somewhat now being called into question, with the argument existing that the increasing prevalence of remote working makes almost every home a target for purchase by someone whose economic resources are not tied to the local economy].

Single‐Family Home Sales Trends

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Single-family homes increased over 46% in average price between 2019 and 2020, with the total number of sales increasing by 50%, and resulting increase in the dollar volume of sales of 106%. This growth was lead by the luxury/resort home market, with an increase the average price of such homes being nearly 38%, as compared to the local market which grew in average price by just over 12%. Continuing to speak point of the influence of the luxury/resort market, 2020 reported over 70 homes selling at or above the $5M mark, while less than 30 homes sold in this price range in 2019. The increase in sales volume is hypothesized to have been greatly inhibited by a lack of inventory of homes for sale.

Attached Home Sales Trends

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The attached home market (condominium / townhouse) remained level in the number of sales occurring, with an increase in the number of resort attached home sales being offset by a decrease in the number of local market attached homes. However, both of these numbers were likely governed by a lack of available inventory, a hypothesis supported by the fact that both market segments saw increases in their average prices in the mid-30% range. Attached homes for the luxury market segment continued to establish new benchmarks, with the One Town Hill development at the base of Snow King in Town selling units in excess $1,600 per sf, while reservations have been taken for the planned private residence “Hoback Club” (an highly amenitized development at the base of the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort) that reportedly average in the range of $3,400.

Vacant Land Sales Trends

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Focusing on single-family homesites (and not ranches), vacant land sales increased by over 50% in 2020. The average price of homesite sales only increase by slightly less than 8%. However, this indication is somewhat skewed by the fact that the inventory of sold homesites in 2019 was itself very heavy in the luxury/resort market. The high-end market was very active in 2019, with the top 15 sales having an average price of approximately $4,742,000. That said, this figure was handily topped in 2020, with the top 15 homesite sales having an average price of $7.1M. Influencing this figure was the sale of a 48-acre, Snake-River-fronting parcel that approached $15M, as well as sales of lots in the $8M range in, Vogel Hill, a new high end development taking advantage of the elevated views of the Gros Ventre West Butte. Also contributing to the average price increase are sales from Shooting Star, where some lots are now toping $7M and appreciation of lots from 2017 sale prices of over 40% has been noted.

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