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Jackson Hole Building Costs (Additional Details)

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This page contains additional information related to the cost of construction in Jackson Hole. To read our original article on Building Costs Click Here.

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Cost Divisions

The cost estimation for a large commercial project is likely to adhere at least the 16 primary divisions as specified by the Construction Specifications Institute (CSI), and possibly the expanded 2004 version of 50 divisions.  However, this is a resource for real estate market participants.  As such, following is an accounting of nine divisions of cost that hopefully speaks more readily to the mindset of those contemplating home construction.

Soft Costs –Items included in this cost division can include architectural design, engineering, surveying, permitting exactions and utility access and tie-in fees.

General Structure – This cost grouping represents perhaps the greatest departure from a traditional way of looking at costs. This division lumps a home’s  foundation, framing and general structural composition together and recognizes that  decisions made in the design process regarding such things as window size and placement, rooflines, cantilevered areas, and size of open living spans will all contribute to cost fluctuations of the General Structure of the home.

Systems – Items included in this division include HVAC (heating ventilation and air conditioning), plumbing, and electronics such as lighting, audio/video, and security.

Cladding and Exterior Finishes – This division addresses the form and function of what keeps the elements from penetrating the walls and roof of homes.

Fenestration – Windows that frame the Tetons can be the center piece of a home, and variations on cladding and operation can cause this component to comprise as much as 5%-10% of a home’s budget.

Interior Finishes ­– This division generally refers such components of construction as interior wall finish, hardware, flooring, cabinetry, trim work and counter tops.

Appliances – this could have easily been subcategory of the above-described Interior Finishes division. However, this is often one of the more tangible connections of an occupant to their home, with a considerable amount of thought being placed on what the interface for that interaction will be.

Amenities ­– This catch all division of amenities recognizes that it can be the goal of homeowners to include items outside of those that are required for the basic function of the home. Whether this is a woodstove, wine cellar or lap pool, the homeowner’s ability to make a personal statement (and the cost of that statement) is limitless.

Landscaping and Access – Landscaping in some of Teton County’s smaller-lot subdivisions can be a function of subdivision covenants which require a paved driveway and specified number of plants of a particular radius or caliper.   However, larger homes on larger lots may have landscaping plans that include bridged waterways, circulating ponds and extensive vegetation breaks for privacy. The cost of such expenses and the infinite combinations of landscaping intensity that exist in between are addressed in this cost division.

Cost Tier 2

Soft Costs • Architectural plans at “core/shell” level with simple detailing and minimal or no Interior drawings and specifications. •  No landscape architect, but possibly civil engineering.
• Mechanical, lighting and electrical plans most likely by contractors, not by design professional or engineer. • Basic Structural engineering.

General Structure • Pre-manufactured components. • Small spans, no exposed structural systems (beams/columns). • Covered porch or entry porch.

Systems • Central heat system – very minimal zone control • Minimal electrical radiant heat mats • Minimal decorative lighting fixtures • Upgrade in switching to include dimming in a few areas

Cladding and Exterior Finishes • Simple wood siding, pre-stained, conventional sizes. • Off-the-shelf type materials that need no finishing such as galvanized or oxidized metal • Asphalt shingles or simple metal roof  • Cultured  stone

Fenestration  • Windows are primarily basic builder’s series • Aluminum-clad wood windows in pine from companies such as Pella, JELD-WEN, and Sierra Pacific

Interior Finishes • Drywall w/ Level 2 finish Basic tiles  • Countertops may be tiled instead of solid surface •  Pre-finished, manufactured wood flooring

Appliances • Brands such as Kenmore and Whirlpool are exemplary of this cost tier. • An appliance more typical of a higher cost tier is a common upgrade for “kitchen-focused” home builders

Amenities •One gas fireplace or wood stove is common for this cost tier • Potentially some built-in speakers for plug-in A/V devices

Landscaping / Access • Landscape planning ‘design/build’ from Landscape company – not landscape architect. • Minimal decorative planting, more lawn, efficient irrigation system. • Small driveway – minimal guest parking. • Sand-set stone terrace

Cost Tier 5

Soft Cost • Full architectural services from design oriented firm, fully custom design • Engineers involved in all civil, structural, mechanical, plumbing, electrical, lighting design,  and A/V design aspects of the home • Acoustic consulting and sustainable design consulting often is procured • Teton County – affordable housing fees can reach $190,000 alone depending on location and size of house • Teton County – energy mitigation can reach $50,000

General Structure • Unique structural design, many components are custom-built on site  • Deeper foundation system for basement/storage space • Exposed concrete and steel with architectural detailing • Largest spans for open spaces and expansive windows
• Double wall and roof/ceiling systems for insulation and sound attenuation • Built-in gutters and internal, hidden motorized shade pockets. • Engineered stud framing for perfectly flat and smooth walls

Systems • Top-of-the-line HVAC system and hydronic – humidification and air conditioning • All systems inclusive of A/V and lighting are integrated into advanced control system  • Visually hidden systems such as air purification using discrete linear diffusers (Grilles) or hidden altogether  • Geothermal heat pumps, photovoltaic panels •  Back-up generators

Cladding and Exterior Finishes • Custom wood and metal siding with custom finishes/patinas • Stone veneer that includes use of custom cut stone or exotic stone from distant supply • Zinc or copper roofing

Fenestration • Custom metal clad wood windows (Bronze or Steel), interior wood of unique species – quarter-sawn cherry, mahogany  • Thermally broken steel windows  • Large Lift slide units throughout house

Interior Finishes • Drywall level 5 and plaster  • Custom finishes such as  concrete, steel, and copper • Extensive use of wood or stone paneling throughout house.  • Full slab Marble and Quartzite on countertops and walls in bathrooms • Top-end tile and fixtures in every room, bathroom such as Dornbracht, Geffe, and custom Hardware.  • Millwork is unique species (quarter-sawn or rift-sawn oak and walnut)

Appliances • Brands such as Zub-Zero, Wolf, Miele and Gaggenau are all noted. • Appliances can be hidden or integrated into a custom millwork packages.  • Custom wine cellars  ice makers, beverage centers. • Plumbed / Built-in Espresso Machines

Amenities  • Many of same amenities specified for Tier 4 Cost  • Fully integrated systems, including Lighting, A/V, motorized shades, heating and cooling – all can be remotely accessed  • Security system with cameras, low temperature  sensors and water sensors.

Landscaping / Access • Longer drives may be complicated by steeper hillside sites • Extensive radiant terraces • Large, cascading water features • Personal preferences may include pool home theater, custom decorative light fixtures throughout

Short Term vs Long Term Rental

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Renting a home when not in use by its owner is certainly not unique to Teton County.  However, the existence of Jackson Hole as a resort community creates some nuances that should be understood by the prospective renter. This article provides both the would-be and existing property owner with a general overview of the formats for rental collection in Teton County and the associated expenses for each of these varying types.

OVERVIEW OF TYPES OF RENTAL FORMATS COMMON TO TETON COUNTY

Long-Term

Long-term rental is the most straight-forward type of rental, with a well-drafted lease, local pricing knowledge, and a “short list” of service providers being the main components of this approach to rental.  

Income
Rental rates for single-family properties are most frequently quoted in terms of rent per month. Lower-to-moderately priced homes will be often be thought of in terms of rent per bedroom, as tenants are frequently groupings of non-related persons.  Such rules of thumb are less applicable to upper tier homes, as the rental of such properties is often at least partially predicated on amenities and living area, rather than sleeping capacity. Interviewing prospective property is  an important part of the process in estimating the likely income level of a property. Market pricing for workforce housing often ranges between $600–$900 per bedroom for multi-bedroom homes in the “Town” and “South of Town” market areas. Single-bedroom rental are an exception to this rule of thumb, with these types of rentals frequently being in the $1,200 a month range.  Summer rentals for resort homes can often be in the $20,000 per month range, with high-end properties in premier locations being noted to have rented for greater than $50,000 per month. Care should be taken by the prospective renter to not simply extrapolate the rental rates from the premier summer months for a calendar year.  A 3-4 bedroom home on more acreage with higher quality and/ or out buildings could easily rent in the $6,000 – $,8,000 per month range when leased for a year (as opposed to the above-mentioned five-figure rental rates for only the summer months).

Expenses
Long-term rental expenses are very similar to that of the expenses which you likely are familiar with from other property ownership:

Taxes 
Taxes in Teton County are the product of the mill levy for the property’s location and “assessed value,” which is 9.5% of the estimate of market value produced by the Assessor’s Office. Mill levy’s may vary due to special assessment and improvement districts, but typically range between 5.5% – 7.5% of the assessor’s estimate of value.  Keep in mind, if increases in a property’s value have not yet been incorporated into the assessor’s estimate of value, your purchase of the property may provide the impetus for a “mark to market” on the annual tax bill.

Utilities 
The best way to anticipate the utility expenses of a home is to examine its historical billing. Electricity in Teton County is provided by Lower Valley Energy, with this cooperative also providing natural gas where piping has made this available (propane can available through several local providers when natural gas is not).  Homes located within the Town of Jackson have access to the public water and sewer. Homes in the unincorporated areas of Teton County may have access to community and water and sewer systems that serve areas ranging in size from individual subdivision to collective districts covering several square miles. Again, investigating historic billing is the best way to estimate future billings. Private wells and septic are also prevalent, in which case this expense would be captured in electrical billing.

Insurance 
The best advice for gauging insurance expense is to get a binding quote.  There is typically an increase in premium for a property that is rented long-term, and some carriers will not insure a property for short-term rentals – so investigation during due diligence when buying a rental property is imperative. Hazard insurance is typically included in the HOA fees of many attached-home projects, but confirming the extent and nature of this coverage is worthwhile.

Association Charges 
Homeowners association charges vary from development to development in cost and what they include. While a property’s history of HOA billing is a good starting point to learn what can be anticipated for this charge, examining the association’s budget and several previous meeting minutes can provide valuable insight. As additional insurance, pointed questions to the HOA board and management company regarding planned or recently completed project improvements and their impact on the upcoming HOA billings or assessments is a good policy.

Yard Maintenance / Snow Removal
The expense of maintenance of the grounds of a rental property can range from being inclusive in association fees for attached home project’s to a not-insignificant annual billing.

Management 
Management of your investment in Jackson Hole is an important not only as an expense line item, but also as a consideration for the continued health of your property.  For those who reside in Jackson Hole, a chosen degree of self-management is possible. However, the convenience and professionalism of management company make this near necessity for out-of-town owners, and a frequently sought out service by many locals as well.

Do it Yourself Management
When renting your home for longer intervals of time, doing it yourself is a viable option. This is especially in light of the current demand for housing.  However, even with the strong rental market this is an option that is most realistically applicable to those who live in the valley themselves. The ability to interview prospective tenants, tend to minor maintenance needs, and observe your tenant’s compliance with HOA rules and applicable ordinances can be a tall order for the out-of-town property owner.

Professional Management
For the out-of-town property owner, employing a local property manager is a reasonable option. The services offered by rental management companies include advertising, tenant interview and qualification, lease negotiation, pre and post move-in inspections and on-call maintenance services. Long-term management services are frequently charged as a percentage of collected rent, with a range of  10% – 15% being common. Some degree of care is implied with this fee, including lease negotiation, credit checks, property check in and out and rent collection and dispersion.  However, as with most services, fees are negotiable and could be expected to slide in an “a la carte” price schedule, which may be an option for those who have the ability have a more active hand in the supervision of their property. Pricing for such arrangements can be based on hourly billing or  can be based on a per-trip. Some management companies are noted to offer a bundling of these services that may be billed as a predetermined number of “checking visits” or maintenance calls per month, with some concierge packages including airport pickups.  

Short-term-Vs.-long-term-rental

Short-Term

The steady stream of visitors afforded to Jackson Hole by its cultural, recreational and scenic amenities provide that short-term rental of property in Jackson Hole can be  a profitable way to take advantage of the demand for vacation housing in this unique corner of the country.  The first step in determining in capitalizing on this demand is to determine the legality of letting in a short-term fashion in your property’s location. Once this has been determined, the would-be landlord will learn that short-term rental is typically handled in one of three primary ways:  Internet Vacation Rental; Managed Rental; or Condo-Hotel.

Internet Vacation Rental
Perhaps the most well-known internet vacation rental is VRBO (Vacation Rental By Owner), with complimentary companies such as VactionRental.com now being a part of the industry-leading HomeAway.com network. Similar products are offered by Trip Advisor’s FlipKey, with companies like Airbnb also competing for market share.  VRBO now claims that it internet postings now reaches over 65 Million travelers per month.  VRBO does not offer pricing recommendations, so the responsibility of sleuthing out your competition’s rates will fall on you.  VRBO has several pricing models ranging from a pay per booking model that skims 10% of the rental revenue, to annual fee that range from the mid-$300 range to in excess of $1,200 annually. The more you pay, the more exposure your property gets (similar to buying non-organic search results in a search engine such as Google). Beyond this marketing fee and 2.9% charge for credit card usage, the expenses for operating a home under the VRBO model are the same as that of long-term rental ownership. As VRBO is a marketing company, the day-to-day operation of the property is the responsibility of the property owner. The operation of a VRBO rental without the assistance of a property manager may be a time-intensive task for the out-of-town owner. Industry experts have also reported that the employment of professional managers has become an increasingly popular search criterion for vacation rental search engines in the wake of some renter’s poor experiences with less-than-responsive property owners and the occasional scam rental of a not-available property.

Managed Rental 
Several local companies manage resort rentals in capacities from maintenance contracts to complete marketing and calendar management.  Often times these management companies will incorporate the use of Internet Vacation Rental platforms in their marketing efforts, which can include not only an extensive reservoir of pricing knowledge, but the benefit of seasoned and established search engine rankings. The owner of a fully-managed property can expect to pay between 25% and 40% of gross rental receipts to the management company (with the difference being attributable to the level of all-inclusive property maintenance). In addition to this a property owner can expect charges for travel agent commissions, bi-annual cleaning, and routine maintenance that can equate to additional expenses in the range of 10% of gross rentals. From this figure of “gross profit” a property owner will then be responsible for HOA dues, utilities, Insurance and Taxes.  

The Condominium-Hotel (Condo-Tel)

The Condominium Hotel (Condo-Tel), is exactly what it sounds like.   This form of ownership allows property owners to have their property promoted seamlessly as part of a functioning hostelry property. Management from property promotion to room bookings to cleanings are handled by the hotel management, while the property owner is not there.  This form of ownership offers the dual benefits of revenue and ease of access, as the property is made ready for you upon your arrival. Frequently the amenities of the hotel such as ski concierge and equipment storage are available to the property owner and discounts at on-site restaurants and spa facilities are added pluses.  Condo-tel ownership is associated with some of Teton Village’s newer properties that are in desirable central locations including the Teton Mountain Lodge, Hotel Terra, Snake River Lodge and Spa, and the Four Seasons. As would be anticipated for the higher level of service and marketing associated with a condo-tel, management fees are somewhat higher than an individually-marketed managed rental. Condo-tel management fees are typified by an equal sharing of gross revenue between the hotel and the property owner, with the property owner then being responsible for miscellaneous expenses including housekeeping, HOA fees, bi-annual deep cleaning, routine repairs and property taxes.

Year End Market Update 2015

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Increases in Average Price and Number of Transactions Is
Indicative of Continued Market Health

Year-end statistics for 2015 reported an over 12% increase in sales volume (number of sales) when compared to data from the previous year. This represents a return to expanding sales numbers after a reported contraction in 2014. However, the decrease in volume of 2014 was directly related to the very strong sales numbers of the 2013 “rebound year.”  When viewing previous six years sales numbers ignoring the 2013 spike, a generally increasing volume trend is noted beginning in 2009 that continued for the next five years. That said, 2015 numbers are very similar to that of 2013, indicating that the market may be currently in a stable period. Alternatively, it is a reasonable hypothesis that the lack of inventory is keeping sales volume suppressed (which also explains the continued appreciation trends).

The average price of the combined residential market (single-family, attached homes, and vacant land) is noted to have increased by nearly 23%.  Many times the increase in the aggregated price of a sales sample in Teton County is skewed by the changing composition of the inventory of sales. However, in this case, the average indicated price growth of the sale sample is noted to be corroborated by many sales and resales comparisons that have been made with this recent data.  Admittedly, appreciation rates can and do vary by market segments. Nevertheless, the aggregated data does appear to give a reasonable indication of price growth during 2015.

Combined-Stats-Year-End-2015

Single-Family Home Sales Trends Through December 2015

Single-family home sales for 2015 surpassed the 2014 volume of 233 sales, with 2015 reporting 253 sales, an over 8% increase. A reoccurring theme in all the residential is that the sales volume trend has increased steadily since 2009 with the exception of a spike in the sales data from 2013, which made 2014 appear as a year of volume contraction (when it is more accurately viewed as a return to the general upward trend line as shown by the three years of 2010, 2011, and 2012.  The average price of single-family homes is noted to have increased over 20% since the previous year. The indication of aggregated sales data can sometimes be skewed by a change in the activity level of one segment in the market (as opposed to being an indicator of appreciation rate). However, the observation of sales and resale of properties during the 2014 to 2015 time period offer support for this being a realistic appreciation rate for many single-family home market segments.  Notably, the higher-end of the market was observed to have a marked impact on the average price measure as 2015 saw 11 sales of $9M or greater, which totaled over $122M in dollar volume of sales. Comparatively, 2014 only saw 3 sales in this price grouping, which equated to approximately $56M in sales.

Single Family Home Sales Year End 2015

Vacant Land Sales Trends Through December 2015

Vacant land sales increased in both number of sales and average price. The data available illogically indicates that dollar volume of sales decreased, which is most likely due to a lack of sales data reporting by market participants. The number of sales in the Local market segment decreased by one sale in 2015, while a decrease of this magnitude is hardly statistically significant, it technically could be pointed out to be part of a three-year trend of declining sales volume. However, a more accurate interpretation of this data would be to note the upward trend in sales volume of the Local market from 2010 forward, with 2013 being a rebound year spike and a bit of an anomaly to the data set. Admittedly, a flattening in sales volume for the Local market is observed in the 2014 / 2015 data, but a lack of supply is opined to have been a major contributor to this trend for much of that time period. At the time of the writing of this report, the Teton County MLS reported 14 homesites listed for sale for less than $500,000. While this might appear to be a market trending towards balance (rather than under supply) it is noteworthy that only three of these lots are located within Jackson or a three-mile radius of Jackson.  The remaining inventory is more likely to appeal to buyers searching for a more rural setting.

Vacant-Land-Year-End-2015

Attached Home Sales Trends Through December 2015

As was the case for both single-family homes and vacant homesites, the market for attached homes (townhomes and condominiums) was up in 2015 for all three metrics of number of sales (16.84%), average price (54.39%), and total dollar volume (52.83%).  Appreciation rates for attached homes (as indicated by sales and resales), showed an appreciation rate that hovered around an average monthly rate of 1% – 1.5%. Therefore, the indication of average price increase is clearly a function of an influx of high-end sales to the dataset and not simply an indication of market appreciation.  This is most evident in the Resort segment where, in 2014, there were seven sales of homes with prices of $2M or greater totaling $24M of total sales and in 2015 this number was observed to be thirty sales totaling $88M. Big contributors to the 2015 attached home sales included The Lodges at Fish Creek (Shooting Star) – 11 sales, the Timbers at Granite Ridge – 4 sales, and the Four Seasons Residences – 6 sales.

Attached-Home-Sales-Year-End-2015

Inventory Level

The preceding table arrays a mid-January snapshot of inventory levels for the past 5 years. Inventory levels continue to remain low and are frequently cited by agents as a stagnating factor for volume levels. As of January of 2016, the inventory of homes, attached homes, and vacant land listed for sale was showing to be at its lowest point in five years. Furthermore, although not shown in this table, current inventory levels are noted to be roughly similar to that of 2008 (330 actives) and approximately 44% less than the 2011 peak available inventory for this time of year of 609 properties actively listed for sale in the Teton County MLS.

Active-Inventory-Year-End-2015

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Andrew Cornish – Broker
PO Box 9467 | 155 E. Pearl,
Suite 10
Jackson, WY 83002
(307) 733.8899
(307) 413.7799
Linkedin

rma-logoData provided by Rocky Mountain Appraisals, Teton County’s leading valuation firm: www.rmappraisals.com

Market Update – 3rd Quarter YTD Comparison

Posted on by research

2015 Sales Volume and Prices Continue to Outpace Previous Year 
Drop in Gains From Midyear Reporting is Indicative of a Slower Third Quarter 
Subtleties in Appreciation Rates Develop Between Market Segments

The first three quarters of 2015 reported an over 16% increase in sales volume (number of sales) when compared to data from the previous year. This rate is down from the 20% growth trajectory noted at midyear. However, while the most recent numbers show a contraction in the rate of growth in relative terms, the current year 3rd quarter numbers still showed growth, with 19 more sales occurring through the 3rd Quarter of 2015 as compared to the period ending in the 3rd Quarter of 2014. The combination of the volume growth and an over 28% increase in the average price of the aggregated data created a strong increase in the dollar volume of sales.

While all segments of the Teton County Real Estate Market showed solid growth in pricing and sales numbers, the upper end or “Resort” segment of the market showed the most robust growth in price. This was largely due to a change in composition of the sales inventory (more luxury properties) as opposed to simple appreciation (although strong appreciation was certainly documented). The sales and active listing data of some more moderately-priced developments may be indicative the properties appealing to local wage earners moving towards stabilization (from previously-observed appreciation rates). However, data from resort and second home properties with appeal to those whose income is derived from sources outside the local economy has shown no indication of appreciation moderation to date.

Combined-Statistics-for-Single-Family,-Attached-Home-and-Vacant-Land---September-30-YTD-Comparison

Single-Family Home Sales Trends Through September 2015

Single-Family-Home-Sales

Single-family home sales through the 3rd quarter of 2015 surpassed the 2014 volume of 165 sales, with a 2015 reporting of 188 sales. This nearly 14% increase in volume coupled with a 22.39% increase in average price caused dollar volume of sales to increase by a reported 21.65% (an under reporting due to some unreported sales). Most price growth in the single-family home market was attributable to the Resort Market, which experienced an over 40% growth in average price. This growth in price was largely dependent on a change in composition of the sold inventory rather than pure appreciation. More specifically, 2015 through the 3rd quarter saw 15 sales in excess of $9M, with one sale clearing the $20M mark. By comparison, there were only two single-family home sales in excess of $9M in 2014. This is not to say that appreciation has not been occurring. As continued appreciation for this market segment is supported subsequently in this newsletter through the observation of attached home and vacant land sales and resales.

Vacant Land Sales Trends Through September 2015

Vacant-Land-salesVacant land sales increased by all measures (number of sales, dollar volume of sales, and average sales price) when comparing 3rd quarter data from 2015 to that of the previous year. Both the Local and Resort market segments showed robust price growth when considering the aggregated data (35.68% and 29.63% respectively). However, similar to the single-family home market, these price increases are the result of the combined effect of increasing values and the changing composition of the sold inventory. The growth in number of sales was strongly influenced by the increased activity in the Shooting Star Golfing Development, which saw 20 sales of these lots that frequent the $2M – $3.5M range. This reporting is significant in comparison to that of 2014, which only saw 7 such lot sales through the 3rd quarter.

Appreciation of Vacant Homesites

Appreciation-of-Homesites

The preceding table arrays five comparisons of identical or similar lots. The top row of each pairing provides a sale that occurred prior to the end of the second quarter of this year, with the lower row of each pairing being a sale that occurred subsequent to this sale date. The result of these comparisons are observed appreciation rates (average – not compound) that range from .63% per month (7.92% annually) to 2.36% per month (28.32% annually). Discrepancies in attributes of the lots in Comparison No.2 are likely to have skewed the indication provided at the higher end of this range, but Comparisons No.1 and No.4 are corroborate the fact that strong appreciation is still evident. An observation of this newsletter in general is that more moderately-priced real estate may be lessening its rate of appreciation as compared to that of higher-end real estate. This trend is not particularly evident for vacant land as evidenced by Comparison No.4 from the Karns Hillside Addition. Contributing factors for the still-apparent bullish trend for vacant land across all market segments include the buyers’ perception of being able to create value through their own design efforts.

Attached-Home-SalesAttached Home Sales Trends Through September 2015

As was the case for both single-family homes, and vacant homesites, the market for attached homes (townhomes and condominiums) was up for all three metrics of number of sales (12.67%), average price (47.21%), and total dollar volume (52.11%). Continuing the similarity with the other segments, the increase in the indicated aggregate price growth was a function of both appreciation and flux in the type of unit being purchased. Appreciation rates for attached homes (as indicated by sales and resales), showed an appreciation rate that may have moderated from that observed earlier in the year (although a small sample size precluded this being a definitive statement). However, even with solid appreciation still being noted, it is observed that most of the increase in the average pricing is due to a shift towards more expensive units in the examined period. As an example, it was noted that the attached home market through the 3rd quarter in 2014 saw only seven (7) sales greater or equal to $2M. By comparison, the resort attached home market segment in 2015 saw twenty-four (24) sales with a price equal or greater than $2M.

Noted-AppreciationNoted Appreciation in the Attached Home Market

The preceding table arrays seven comparisons of sales and resales which provide indications of monthly appreciation ranging (average- not compound) from a .66% to 1.52%. The average appreciation rate of these comparisons is 1.04%, which is down slightly from a mid-year estimate of 1.24%. Admittedly, the small sample size and the subjectivity in discerning valid comparisons versus anomalies somewhat limits the definitiveness of this observation. That said, the currently-active listings of units at prices only slightly above that of the most recent sales (see comments column for Comparisons No.3 and No.5 as examples) may be indicative of the lower-priced segment of the market moving into a period of more moderate appreciation or stability.

Active-InventoryInventory Level

Inventory levels continue to remain low and are frequently cited by agents as a stagnating factor for volume levels. As of November of 2015, the inventory level was essentially flat as when compared to the previous year, with real estate market participants having 398 opportunities in the above-observed market areas as compared to 394 at the same time last year.

JH_RealEstate_logo_cornish_lamppa

Andrew Cornish – Broker
PO Box 9467 | 155 E. Pearl,
Suite 10
Jackson, WY 83002
(307) 733.8899
(307) 413.7799
Linkedin

rma-logoData provided by Rocky Mountain Appraisals, Teton County’s leading valuation firm: www.rmappraisals.com

Market Update – June 30, 2015 YTD Comparison

Posted on by research

Sales Volume and Prices Increase “Across the Board”
Higher-End Real Estate Leads the Charge

The first half of 2015 is on track to have an over 20% increase in sales volume (number of sales) when compared to data from the previous year.  Observing sales data through the end of June, it is noted that the number of sales (homes and building sites in Teton County east of the Teton Range) has increased from 230 in number at this time last year to 280 in 2015. The combination of this trend and an over 43% increase in the average price of the aggregated data created an increase in the dollar volume of sales of 51.69%. While all segments of the Teton County Real Estate Market showed solid growth in pricing and sales numbers, the upper end or “Resort” segment of the market showed the most robust growth. This was largely due to a change in composition of the sales inventory (more luxury properties) as opposed to simple appreciation (although strong appreciation was certainly documented).Combined-Statistics-for-Single-Family,-Attached-Home-and-Vacan-Land-June-30-2015-YTD

Single-Family Home Sales Trends Through June 2015

Single-Family-Home-Sales-June-30,-2015-YTDSingle-family home sales, after being off as of the first quarter, made up ground and have surpassed the 2014 mid-year volume of 78 sales, with a 2015 reporting of 106 sales. This nearly 36% increase in volume coupled with a 25.86% increase in average price caused dollar volume of sales to surge by 58%.  It would appear that pricing of the local market had been relatively flat during the first half of 2015. However, in reality, this was due to the changing composition of sold properties as comparison of sales and resales of the same or similar properties still is providing the indication of high-single-digit and  double-digit annual appreciation rates. The higher end market was the driving force behind the growth in aggregated numbers, with high-value properties pulling average pricing up significantly (average pricing in this market segment increased by over 44%).  However, in a similar fashion as the aggregated numbers for the local market’s understated appreciation rates, the average price increase for the resort market is an overstatement of price growth due to several luxury property sales skewing the measures of central tendency upward. More specifically, it was noted that 2014 mid-year data for the single-family resort market reported three (3) sales at or above $5M with one (1) of these sales being above $6M.  By comparison, mid-year 2015 data for this segment contained ten (10) sales equal to or greater than $5M, with seven (7) of these sales being equal or greater than $6M.

Vacant Land Sales Trends Through June 2015

Vacant-Land-Sales-June-30,-2015-YTDVacant land sales increased by all measures (number of sales, dollar volume of sales, and average sales price) when comparing mid-year data from 2015 to that of the previous year. Both the Local and Resort market segments showed robust price growth when considering the aggregated data (47.89% and 58.96% respectively). However, similar to the single-family home market, these price increases are the result of the combined effect of increasing values and the changing composition of the sold inventory. Observation of sales and resales of vacant land provide the indication that prices had been increasing since 2012 through 2014 at aggressive rates, with annualized rates being observed in some instance in excess of 20%. Sales and resales of lots that have occurred between 2014 and 2015 are limited, but provide the preliminary indication that appreciation rates may have moderated to the mid-to-high single digits. The luxury segment of the market’s influence on increasing sales trends for 2015 was pronounced, with 2015 year-to-date having three sales equal or greater than $5M adding nearly $20M to the dollar volume of sales (while no such sales having occurred by this time the previous year).

Attached Home Sales Trends Through June 2015

Attached-Home-Sales-June-30,-2015-YTDAs was the case for both single-family homes, and vacant homesites, the market for attached homes (townhomes and condominiums) was up for all three metrics of number of sales (14.13%), average price (62.26%), and total dollar volume (65.78%).  Continuing the similarity with the other segments, the increase in the indicated aggregate price growth was a function of both appreciation and flux in the type of unit being purchased.  Appreciation rates for attached homes (as indicated by sales and resales), showed an average appreciation rate of 1.24% (average, not compound) on a sample of 11 comparisons. This figure is down from appreciation rates extracted between the years of 2012 – 2014 (which are opined to have included sales that experienced a rebound “bounce” from recession lows).  Even at this robust level of appreciation, it is noted that most of the increase in the average pricing is due to a shift towards more expensive units in the examined period (which could be as much from happenstance as it is a market trend considering the smaller sample size). That said, it was noted that the attached home market saw in 2014 only eight (8) sales greater or equal to $1M, with two (2) of these sales being greater than or equal to $3M. By comparison, the resort attached home market segment in 2015 saw twenty-two (22) sales with a price equal or greater than $1M, with eight (8) sales greater than or equal to $3M.

Noted Appreciation in the Attached Home Market

Noted-Appreciaion-in-the-Attached-Home-Marke

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Andrew Cornish – Broker
PO Box 9467 | 155 E. Pearl,
Suite 10
Jackson, WY 83002
(307) 733.8899
(307) 413.7799
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Market Update – April 2015 YTD Comparison

Posted on by research

The First Four Months of 2015 Are Characterized by
Continued Price Increases as Available Inventory Contracts

The first four months of 2015 is on track to have an approximate 6% increase in sales volume as measured by the number of sales when compared to data from the previous year. When measuring sales velocity by dollar volume of sales, an increase of 36% is noted, with over $223M worth of real estate being sold in Teton County as of the end of April. The increase in sales volume is mostly attributed to the higher-end Resort Market, as a decrease in available inventory of homes for sale is hypothesized to be the reason for mildly contracting sales numbers for the Local Market. When comparing the sale and resale of the same or similar properties, monthly appreciation rates ranging from .58% to in excess of 2% per month have been noted over the period of 2013-2015 in both higher and more moderately-priced market segments. Of particular interest is the fact that appreciation rates observed using the comparisons of sale / re-sale pairs occurring from 2014 – 2015 have rates of appreciation that are similar to that observed during the 2013-2015 period (both data sets having a mean appreciation rate of approximately 1.4% per month). The implication being that there are not currently any signs of abatement in the observed upward pricing trend.

 

Single-Family Home Sales Trends Through April 2015

SingleFamSales

Single-family home sales are down in number by two sales, which is result of a decrease in five sales for the Local Market and an increase in three sales for the Resort Market. Although the Local Market showed a slight decrease in average price, this can be traced to one higher-end sale in 2014 that skewed the average for this year. The average price for the Resort Market increased by 30% from the previous year during early 2015. This increase is partially due to price growth in general, but can also be traced to a surge in higher-end sales for early 2015. More specifically, it was observed that the first four months of 2015 saw eight sales equal or greater than $3,000,000 that had an average sale price of $6,500,000. This represents a nearly 23% increase over the previous year, which saw seven sales greater than or equal to  3,000,000, with the average of these sales being $5,300,000.

Vacant Land Sales Trends Through April 2015
Vacant Land Sales Trends Through April 2015

Vacant land sales increased by all measures (number of sales, dollar volume of sales, and average sales price) when comparing data from the end of April 2015 to that of the previous year. The average price of homesites in both the Local and Resort Market segments increase dramatically for this year-to-date. A nearly 60% increase in the average price of the lot sales in the Resort Market is largely attributable to this spring’s total of 17 sales equal to or greater than $1,000,000 (which had an average sale price of $3,050,000). Seven of these sales were from the Shooting Star resort development. By comparison, this same period in 2014 had 14 sales equal to or greater than $1,000,000, with an average price of this grouping being only $2,325,000.

Attached Home Sales Trends Through April 2015
Attached Home Sales Trends Through April 2015

The number of condominium / townhouse sales through the end of April was up in number by approximately 10% from the previous year. Volume numbers were slightly down for the Local Market. However, increasing prices in this market segment stemmed the impact of the slight contraction in sales numbers, and the overall dollar volume of sales remained essentially level for the Local Market. Multiple high-end townhouse /condominium sales in the Teton Village area has caused a nearly 85% increase in the dollar volume of sales for condominium and townhome properties during the first four months of 2015. In 2014, only two attached home sales equal or greater in sale price than $2.0M were recorded by the end of April. This same time period for 2015 has seen eleven such sales, with the average sale price of this grouping being nearly $3.4M.

Active inventory

The inventory of homes grew from a shortage of available inventory in 2007 to an oversupply in 2010-11 following the events of the financial crisis. Since 2011, a downward trend has been noted, with inventory being generally opined to be at shortage levels. This trend continued through the first four and one-half months of 2015 with inventory being down approximately 19% overall as of mid-May of 2015 (as compared to the same time in 2014).

Historical Active Inventory Levels as Mid-May
Historical Active Inventory Levels as Mid-May

 

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Andrew Cornish – Broker
PO Box 9467 | 155 E. Pearl,
Suite 10
Jackson, WY 83002
(307) 733.8899
(307) 413.7799
Linkedin


rma-logoData provided by Rocky Mountain Appraisals, Teton County’s leading valuation firm: www.rmappraisals.com

 

 

 

Market Update – Mid-March 2015

Posted on by research

Sales Volume and Prices Increase in Upper Value Range For Homes and Across All Price Ranges for Vacant Land –Inventory Shortage Curtails Activity in the Lower-End Market

The first quarter of 2015 is on track to have an approximate 30% increase in sales volume when compared to data from the previous year.  Observing sales data through the middle of March, it is noted that the number of sales (homes and building sites in Teton County east of the Teton Range) has increased from 74 in number at this time last year to 94 in 2015. The combination of this trend and an over 23% increase in the average price of the aggregated data combined for an increase in the dollar volume of sales of 34.81%. The upper end or “Resort” segment of the market was chiefly responsible for these trends as upward price pressure from a constriction in inventory has somewhat stagnated sales volume numbers for lower-end properties. Despite indications from the data showing that the “Local” market has declined in price, comparisons of sales and re-sales shows prices to still be rising (with the counterintuitive indication provided by the averaged data being due to fluctuations in the type of home that sold – not price trending). An exception to the trend of contracting sales volume in the lower-end market was noted in the vacant land segment of the Local Market, as a small flurry of homesite sales increased sales volume by over 130% for this data grouping.

(click on tables/charts to see enlarged view)

Screen-Shot-2015-03-30-at-2.03.25-PMScreen-Shot-2015-03-30-at-2.04.11-PM

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Market Update – Year End Summary 2014

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Sales Volume Lessens Amid Lower Home Inventory and Rising Prices – Appreciation Still Ongoing – Most Noticeably in Lower Price Ranges

Sales data for year-end 2014 exhibited a contraction in the number of sales and total dollar volume of sales (as compared to the previous year to date) of nearly 14%. This phenomenon is attributed to a decrease in listing inventory, with the inventory as of mid-January of 2015 being approximately 20% less than it was at that time last year. As a result of this market tightening, single-family home sales are off in number by approximately 18%. The number of attached home sales and vacant land sales are also down (14% and 2% respectively) but not to the degree of detached, improved residences.  It was hypothesized during the mid-year market report that the earlier recovery of the single-family housing market gave many single-family home sellers the confidence to “test the waters” with higher asking prices at the beginning of the summer sales season, causing a standoff between buyers and sellers. As of yearend, it was noted that prices remained strong despite contracting sales volume, with little or no indication of sellers lessening their expectations.  The aggregated data for residential real estate sales showed an increase in average price (8.1%) from yearend 2013, with this indication hypothesized to be the result of continued appreciation in the lower-priced segments of the market and  stabilized pricing at the upper end of the  residential market. Notably, the aggregated date would, appear to indicate that Teton County’s more expensive properties depreciated to varying degrees during 2014. However, examination of individual property sales provides that this is not the case. Rather, a decrease in the number of luxury sales above $3,000,000 in value served to pull the average price of Teton County Luxury sales downward, but this is not at all indicative of a downward value trend, merely a fluctuation in the number of high-end sales.

 Summary of Market Statistics

# of residential sales
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Average Transaction price
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Jackson Hole Real Estate Market Update – Third Quarter 2014

Posted on by research

Overall, Jackson Hole real estate sales through the first three quarters of 2014 are down slightly at 16% when compared to 2013. A 20% decrease in listing inventory appears to be a major factor for this downturn with single-family home sales down the most out of vacant land and attached homes sales. Analysis of the mid year market report theorized that the early recovery of the single-family home market encouraged sellers to raise asking prices, which in turn caused a standoff between sellers and buyers. As the 3rd quarter closed list prices remained up, resulting in a downturn in overall sales when compared to the previous banner year in 2013. Another reason for the slight drop off; fewer “ultra luxury” home sales occurred in 2014, with only one sale in excess of $10,000,000 compared to four such sales in the previous year.

Attached homes sales were down 7.45% from 2013, but the average attached home price increased by nearly 7%. Vacant land sales were down 16.49% and single-family homes were down 23%.

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Third Quarter 2014

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